江蘇省高溫熱害及其對水稻生產(chǎn)的影響研究.pdf

1、Rice is the very important grain crop in Jiangsu province,but the agricultural disaster oecurded at the critical crop growth stages,especially the high temperature which happened on rice flowering frequently,which leads

2、to reduce yield severity.It is very important to make security plan and alleviate or avoid the inpacts on rice yield of the high temperature regular of rice. This paper chooses the daily average temperature and daily m

3、aximum temperature with 13stations in Jiangsu province,analyzing the regular of the light middle heavy degree of the time and space distribution during the rice heading stage.The modle simulate influence of the high temp

4、erature on rice yield with the data of file and meteorology.Also this paper simulates the future stage and yield of different rice type with WGEN and the stage modle.The conclusions are as follows: (1)Over the past 50 y

5、ears,the high temperature disaster increased during the he critical stage of rice.The three degree high temperature disaster went up with similar inner-annual fluctuation,but the probability of the heavy degree high temp

6、erature disaster hapeened slightly with the space distrubition decreased from south to north.The three degree disaster have the same point of discontinuity and they distributed clsed to 1964,1970,1975,1978,1994,2001,2003

7、.2003is a tipical high temperature year. (2)We can see that the rice yield had a better agreement with the observed values.and the relative error between outputs of crop model and observations was within a reasonable ra

8、nge with the ORYZA2000 modle(NRMSE=8.3％).The high temperature simulate shows that with the increase of the high temperature's intensity and duration time,the rice yield also decreased.And the hybrid rice's heat-resisting

9、 is better than jing rice. (3)We can conclude that the growth duration of wuyujing 3 shorted nearly 10 days and liangyou 6236 shorted 6days from the future climate simulated by ORYZA 2000.The weather condition between t

10、he future and the field experiment of the year 2010 are similar which recurred little difference of liangyou 6326 and made difference of wuyujing.With shortened stage,the product of the two rice type has changed.The yiel