黃河源區(qū)凍土對氣候變化響應(yīng)的數(shù)值模擬.pdf

1、河海大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文黃河源區(qū)凍土對氣候變化響應(yīng)的數(shù)值模擬姓名：張磊磊申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：水文學(xué)及水資源指導(dǎo)教師：郝振純20080530Abstractuneottllemostimponantconsequencesof910balcIimatechangescausedbyi力creaSesinatm。Sphenc婦cega8concentrati。nsisaJterati。nsinregi。nalhydrol。giccycles

2、andsessmentof、咖erreSourceSsubSequente疏ctson，mewatera11dsojlerosiona11dgr嬲slandd咖on1heisSueo地10眥w鋤ingmorea11dm。re舭tstheattenti。nofpeopIem：吣dy，nm：reSponse0fme筋zenSoiltothecliInaticchaIlgehassi鰣ficallcei11an。u11cing齜foIl燦na

3、nd謝ation0fthe療ozenz。nes’mn。行觚din腳ctin譬忑ec：oenvlro『1_：entalanddemalldandinpromotingthere西徹a】econ。myAtthes鋤eime’it姍兒proVldetheimpoIrtantfoundationtoestimatethe靴吮rresourcesin硒zenzones1ntnecontext0fmonthIyme觚temperatWe，maXim

4、啪temperatWe，minim啪烹era‘：reandprecipi謝ion0f24蜘ionsi11t11eheadregi。n。fYell。w黜ver舶m1961t。刪UUandthetemp蹦咖re鯽dprecipitationoutputoffiveIPccmodelsareanalyzedt0：翼ua鼉thec印ab訂it)rof也eGcMsinmodelingclimaticchallges。verthehead毒i。n。

5、f№110wRjv排eSultShowedthattheseIPccmodelSce刪nlyhavet11ecapabilit)r。fm蕊ing倫mperatl=rechange＆GenerallySpeakin＆the。utputofGFDLm。delmaybeapplicabJe毒eV剮：e如c11matech觚geoftheheadregionofYellow砌ver，yuslngtheequationregula矗tyofmoi

6、SturemoVementa11dsoilmernlaJconductiveanda(!optlngcemralScheme，也emodel0fcoupledtheequationm。istureandheatiseStablished一，SomeaSsumptionTheresult，themaxim啪andaccumulatived印t11ofmeltingye訓(xùn)y，鼉waSca謝砌bythemodel，ShoWedthatthis

7、modlec觚a】mostsimulatemeprocess孟soIreeze—thawandgetthesatisfacto巧resultsKesultshowedthattheye砌ymeantempejratureisupc。ntinually觚dthe舶zensoilisdlsappemngnowbyanalySingth“emper叭lreandalterationsofthetllicknessofpenna舶stslnce

8、陀cordtheobseⅣingdataintheheadregionofYellowRiverAtthesall】etimewecan竺etmepar姍eterS0fthed溉remstationswhereintheheadregionofYeIlow硒verbyuse仇e薯da饑‘rhereSuhSo九he舶zenSoilalterationsin50yearScallbecau】atedbyrunllingthemodle’an

9、erchooSingtheGcMmodleandmakinguse。ftheways。fspatiaJinterp。lati。：and傖mp。raJsolu‘i。nSItsh。wsthatt11e舶zens。ilwillbedisappe喇ngprobab帥l020yearSinmo；‘a(chǎn)reaS硝。meheadregionofYdlow礎(chǔ)Ver，howeverthe舶zensoilwiIlbeincreaSjngblyin10year

10、SinS0utheastofregionThen，the疳。zensoilwi】】beincreasingrapidlyan二!：1e協(xié)ickneSsof也e矗ozenwillreachthemaximumprobabIyinthiscemure。f30ie：，s爻ner，en’the療ozenso訂willbegraduaIlydisapperringprobab】yH。wever，the廳。二ens。iJwillbe1ncreaSm